With a vaccine on the horizon, it will be easier for airlines to build confidence in travelers and convince them to fly again. Even so, it may still be six to eight months before this vaccine is widely distributed, and some health estimates that the youngest people, which are generally considered at the lowest risk of getting a severe case of coronavirus, may not get vaccines for almost a year.
The aviation industry still, then, has a long road until recovery. While some might be eager to travel as soon as possible, others will still be weary until there has been enough time for the vaccine to be distributed. And both local and international governments may take time to lift restrictions until most people are vaccinated, complicating travel rebounds.
It’s possible, though, that air travel could see returns to 2019 levels a little sooner than the early 3-4 year estimates. Thanks in large part to increased commitment to this vaccine and a general knowledge of the coronavirus family that has led research, these COVID-19 vaccines were developed much more quickly than normal, and billion-dollar investments from governments will make it easier and cheaper for companies to distribute their vaccines, which combined will see this vaccine distributed on a larger and faster scale than arguably any other vaccine in history.
This will allow airlines to coax passengers back onboard relatively sooner, which could aid in a quicker industry rebound as people become anxious to vacation or visit at-risk friends and family that they previously couldn’t have contact with.
What’s certain is that airlines are set to see another boom in cargo traffic – which very well may bring in handsome revenues – to distributed this vaccine. As the pandemic hit in the spring, airlines were able to generate extra revenue by shipping personal protective equipment on passenger planes, and cargo airlines bought new planes and hired new crews to meet demand. It’s possible that airlines will again see a sudden boom in traffic, which could help bring in extra revenue and create demand for aircraft and crews that have been furloughed.
Future Changes in Cargo Distribution
This vaccine distribution could drastically change the role airlines play in air cargo in the future. This distribution might be proof that proven passenger airlines are capable of operating on the same scale as established cargo airlines. We could potentially see passenger airlines grow their cargo arms to include dedicated cargo planes instead of just carrying cargo in the belly holds of passenger aircraft.
