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Oversupply devalues freight aircraft despite strong cargo market

The growth in fleet size has been driven by increased demand for freighter aircraft following the cancellation of most international passenger services and the ensuing loss in freight space onboard passenger aircraft.

As a result, the number of freighter flights has grown from about 100,000 per month before the pandemic, to more than 145,000 in December 2020, the current peak.

The result means that despite the 45 per cent growth in freight flights, the value of a 2002 build Boeing 737-800 converted freighter has dropped from $20.9 million in mid 2020 to $18.28 million in early 2021 with younger aircraft seeing a greater drop.

In addition, lease rates for an aircraft of the same age have dropped from US$220,000 per month to US$192,000 per month over the same period.

IBA president Phil Seymour said: “Covid-19 has significantly affected the dynamics of the freighter aircraft market and that is set to continue for at least the next two years. However, the clear and strong growth in demand is not driving up values and lease rates as it normally would.

“While the global freighter fleet is growing as is the number of conversions, there has been a corresponding increase in aircraft available for conversion driven by the accelerated retirement of passenger aircraft fleets.

“This has meant that freighter values and lease rates have actually seen a modest drop.”

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