The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for October 2022 global air cargo markets showing that headwinds continue to affect air cargo demand.
- Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs*), fell 13.6% compared to October 2021 (-13.5% for international operations).
- Capacity was 0.6% below October 2021. This was the first year-on-year contraction since April 2022, however, month-on-month capacity increased by 2.4% in preparation for the year-end peak season. International cargo capacity grew 2.4% compared to October 2021.
- Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, are shrinking in all markets except China and South Korea, which registered slightly higher new export orders in October.
- Latest global goods trade figures showed a 5.6% expansion in September, a positive sign for the global economy. This is expected to primarily benefit maritime cargo, with a slight boost to air cargo as well.
- The US dollar has seen a sharp appreciation, with the broad real effective exchange rate in September 2022 reaching the highest level since 1986. A strong dollar affects air cargo. As many costs are denominated in dollars, the currency’s appreciation adds another layer of cost on top of high inflation and high jet fuel prices.
- The Consumer Price Index increased slightly in G7 countries in October and remains at a decades’ high level of 7.8%. Inflation in producer (input) prices reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% in September.
“Air cargo continues to demonstrate resilience as headwinds persist. Cargo demand in October — while tracking below the exceptional performance of October 2021– saw a 3.5% increase in demand compared to September,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“This indicates that the year-end will still bring a traditional peak-season boost despite economic uncertainties. But as 2022 closes out it appears that the current economic uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued close monitoring.”
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| 1 % of industry CTKs in 2021 2 Change in load factor 3 Load factor level |
October Regional Performance
- Asia-Pacific airlinessaw their air cargo volumes decrease by 14.7% in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was a decline in performance compared to September (-10.7%). Airlines in the region continue to be impacted by the war in Ukraine, and lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity due to Omicron-related restrictions in China. Available capacity in the region decreased by 2.8% compared to 2021.
- North American carriers posted an 8.6% decrease in cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was a decline in performance compared to September (-6.0%). Capacity increased 2.4% compared to October 2021.
- European carriers saw an 18.8% decrease in cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was the worst performance of all regions and a decline in performance compared to September (-15.6%). This is attributable to the war in Ukraine. High inflation levels, most notably in Türkiye, also affected volumes. Capacity decreased 5.2% in October 2022 compared to October 2021.
- Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 15.0% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in October 2022. This was a marginal improvement to the previous month (-15.8%). Stagnant cargo volumes to/from Europe impacted the region’s performance. Capacity increased 1.0% compared to October 2021.
- Latin American carriers reported a decrease in demand of 1.4% in cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to October 2021. This was the strongest performance of all regions, however it still was a significant decline in performance compared to September (10.8%). This was the first decline in volumes since March 2021. Capacity in October was up 19.2% compared to the same month in 2021.
- African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by 8.3% in October 2022 compared to October 2021. This was a significant decrease in the growth recorded the previous month (0.1%). Capacity was 7.4% below October 2021 levels.
