The Seabury’s Group’s commercial director Dirk de Rooij forecasts that global air cargo industry growth will be “positive” in 2018.
Speaking on Tuesday at the Nordic Air Cargo Symposium in Stockholm, he did though say the conventional belief that the industry will grow at five to six per cent per year “does not hold anymore”.
De Rooij also said that the leading indicators hint towards a downfall of China’s export growth into 2018, while US air exports will recover and Europe will show strong stable air freight growth.
“In terms of capacity less is expected to be added, which changes the market dynamics. We see positive growth for the next few months out,” he said.
Talking specifically about the Nordic region, de Rooij said last year export growth was seen across Norway mainly due to the fast expanding seafood market.
Over in Denmark, he said it was driven by pharmaceuticals and seafood, where as in Sweden it was much more balanced with a mix of machinery components, iron and steel products.
In 2017, he said the global year-on-year (YOY) air trade growth of 10.8 per cent was fuelled by a 40 per cent increase in North East Asia, mainly China and Japan, a 36 per cent uplift in Western Europe (32 per cent in Germany), and 10 per cent in South East Asia.
As for the freighter market, de Rooij said that cargo flown in freighters now accounts for 34 per cent of volumes and is falling, while freight in bellies is growing more significantly as airlines add capacity through new passenger aircraft.
He said that of the freighter orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers, integrators are driving the market as make-up 78 per cent as the likes of FedEx and UPS commit to new aircraft, while airlines have placed only 22 per cent of the order.