Airbus: freighter demand to more than double over the next 20 years

posted on 6th July 2018 by Justin Burns
Airbus: freighter demand to more than double over the next 20 years

Airbus forecasts nearly 37,400 new aircraft valued at $5.8 trillion are required in the commercial aviation industry over the next 20 years to meet demand and the freighter market will be made up of 2,722 with 1,560 conversions, 336 now in operation and about 830 new freighter deliveries are needed.

The French aircraft manufacturer says in its new Global Market Forecast 2018-2037 that regionally in 20 years, Africa will have 107 freighters, Asia Pacific 802, the CIS 93, Europe 405, Latin America 99, the Middle East 136 and North America 1080.

As of the start of 2018, 1650 freighters were in operation –  of which Africa had 46 freighters, Asia Pacific 318, the CIS 70, Europe 253, Latin America 70, the Middle East 70 and North America 823.

Airbus predicts that the world’s passenger fleet will more than double to 48,000 aircraft in 20 years with traffic growing at a “resilient” 4.4 per cent per year.

Airbus says their is a need for 28,550 new small aircraft like the A320neo, 5,480 medium passenger and freighter aircraft, 1,760 large aircraft like the A350 and 1,590 extra large aircraft like the A350-1000 and the A380.

Of the 37,390 new aircraft required, 26,540 are for growth and 10,850 will replace older generation less fuel efficient aircraft. The more than doubling in the world fleet to 48,000 aircraft results in a need for 540,000 new pilots.

Growth drivers include private consumption increasing 2.4 times in emerging economies, higher disposable incomes and a near doubling of the middle classes globally. Emerging countries will account for over 60 per cent of economic growth, with trips per capita to multiply 2.5 times for these nations.

Combined with evolving airline business models and continuing liberalisation, the growing scale of air transportation will lead to an increasing resilience to regional slowdowns.

Airbus chief commercial officer, Eric Schulz said: “There is a growing trend to use aircraft across a broader range of operations, with today’s more capable aircraft blurring the boundaries between market segments.

“These realities made us develop a new segmentation with small, medium, large and extra-large categories, reflecting more closely the way airlines operate aircraft.”

Freighter aircraft
Region Start Fleet 2018 End Fleet 2037 20-year new deliveries Converted Remaining
Africa 46 107 23 78 6
Asia-Pacific 318 802 252 473 77
CIS 70 93 38 33 22
Europe 253 405 103 258 44
Latin America 70 99 13 79 7
Middle East 70 136 54 33 49
North America 823 1080 343 606 131
World                             1,650                             2,722                                          826                             1,560                                 336
Freight Units
Category Africa Asia-Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America Total
Small 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Medium 18 102 16 55 13 16 252 472
Large 2 52 8 17 0 13 32 124
X-Large 3 98 14 31 0 25 59 230
Total 23 252 38 103 13 54 343 826